The Australian stock market kicked off Friday on a sour note, with the S&P/ASX 200 tumbling 1.55% to open at 8,614 points. It's now in the middle of a rough four-day slide that's shaved off 2.5% from its value, putting it 5.2% below the peak it hit back on October 21. For the first time since late April, the index is flirting with its 200-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index has flashed its most oversold reading in months. Futures were pointing down another 1.6% before the bell, dragged by a messy overnight session on Wall Street where not much seemed to go right.
What's behind the pain? No single smoking gun, but a cocktail of worries is bubbling up. The U.S. government's recent shutdown means key data like October jobs numbers and CPI figures are still in limbo, leaving traders guessing. Add in some tough talk from Federal Reserve officials—folks like Collins, Mulsalem, Daly, and Hammack—who are stressing inflation risks and urging caution on cuts. Odds for a December rate trim have dipped to just 48%, the lowest in weeks, even as markets still bet on 75 basis points of easing through 2026. Over in the States, Verizon's news of 15,000 job losses and flagging subscribers didn't help the mood, and AI hype is cooling off fast. Holiday spending outlooks are mixed too: PwC sees plans down 5% year-over-year, while NRF predicts a modest 4% bump to over $1 trillion.
Not everything's doom and gloom, though. Lithium plays are holding up better than most, thanks to fresh tailwinds from China. A new royalty tweak there is jacking up costs for local lepidolite by $20–30 per tonne, which lifts the floor for everyone and gives Aussie spodumene miners like Mineral Resources (MIN) a leg up. POSCO's $765 million buy of a 30% stake in MinRes' lithium arm—at a 45% premium to fair value—has trimmed the company's debt and shouted confidence in premium assets. Liontown Resources climbed 3.1% to $1.50, IGO edged up 1.93% to $6.85, and Pilbara Minerals gained 1.06% to $3.82, though MIN itself slipped 1.29% to $50.40.
Company news offered a few bright spots amid the rout. Wagners spiked early on upbeat guidance—1H26 EBIT of $31–33 million, beating estimates by 36.8%, and full-year at $52–56 million, up 24.7% from forecasts—but cooled to a 1.1% rise at $3.39. Virgin Australia sounded steady at its AGM, sticking to 3% capacity growth for FY26, eyeing 3–5% RASK uplift in the first half, and trimming capex to $800 million while banking on $400 million in efficiency gains for better margins. Acrow, meanwhile, flagged 1H26 adjusted EBITDA of $37–40 million, slightly shy of consensus but backed by a booming pipeline, acquisitions, and a $126 billion government infra spend over five years.
The losers' list was brutal, led by TPG Telecom's 29.2% ex-div plunge to $3.97 after a $1.61 capital return. Tech, gold, and uranium names got hammered: Life360 down 6.13% to $37.34, Zip 6.02% to $3.05, NextDC 4.85% to $13.83, Northern Star 4.66% to $25.76. Defensives like Genesis Energy (+1.87% to $2.18) and Sonic Healthcare (+1.32% to $21.54) clawed back some ground.
Analysts are shrugging off Aristocrat Leisure's 7.5% dip after solid FY25 results—UBS cut its target to $72.70 but kept a Buy, calling it an overreaction with strong digital momentum ahead. Jarden and Morgans echoed that, seeing pipeline growth outweigh any interactive softness.
As the dust settles, this feels like a classic risk-off day. Keep an eye on data releases once the U.S. sorts its mess—could swing things quick. For investors, it's a reminder to balance those high-flyers with steadier bets.
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