ACE Investors

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By Team Ace Investors

Company Overview

Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX: AGE) is a uranium development company focused on advancing in-situ recovery (ISR) projects in Australia, with a strategy centered on low-cost, low-impact uranium production aligned with global decarbonization and nuclear power demand. Its flagship Samphire Uranium Project in South Australia is the company's core asset, underpinned by an upgraded 18.0 million pounds JORC resource and strong ISR economics, while Big Lake provides longer-term exploration upside following a new ISR-style uranium discovery. In FY25, AGE achieved several value-defining milestones, including resource growth and confidence upgrades at Blackbush, receipt of key regulatory approvals (Retention Lease and PEPR), completion of the pilot plant construction on time and under budget, and an A$17.25 m institutional capital raise, significantly de-risking project execution. The company also streamlined its portfolio by divesting non-core Northern Territory assets, sharpening strategic focus, and strengthening liquidity. Looking ahead to FY26, AGE's growth strategy prioritizes executing the Field Recovery Trial at Samphire, delivering initial recovery results, progressing mining lease approvals, and advancing feasibility studies toward production readiness. Concurrently, the company aims to expand resource confidence, advance Big Lake drilling, and leverage a supportive uranium market backdrop driven by utility and AI-related nuclear demand.

Investment Rationale

AGE’s Samphire Uranium Project represents a clear path to value inflection

The Samphire Uranium Project represents Alligator Energy's most advanced and value-defining asset, providing a clear pathway from development to potential production through its in-situ recovery (ISR) model. With all key regulatory approvals in place, the Field Recovery Trial (FRT) is scheduled to commence in early 2026. It will be critical in validating uranium recoveries, operating parameters, hydrogeology, and environmental performance under real field conditions. Successful execution of the FRT is expected to materially de-risk the project, directly underpinning the Mining Lease application and Bankable Feasibility Study, and to improve confidence in potential offtake and financing discussions. Samphire is further supported by an upgraded 18.0Mlb JORC resource and strong scoping-study economics, positioning it as one of the more advanced and cost-competitive near-term ISR uranium projects in Australia. As a result, upcoming FRT results represent a near-term value inflection point with potential to catalyze a market re-rating as the project transitions toward development readiness.

Samphire remains the core value driver, with the Field Recovery Trial (FRT) now fully approved and de-risking the transition from developer to producer.
The pilot plant construction was completed on time and under budget, with commissioning underway and FRT scheduled to begin in Feb 2026, delivering first recovery results in Q1 CY26.
The FRT will validate ISR operating parameters and directly underpin Mining Lease approvals and the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) targeted for early 2027

Materially de-risked its pathway toward uranium production.

In FY25, Alligator Energy achieved several transformational milestones, materially de-risking its pathway to uranium production, including upgrading the Samphire Blackbush JORC resource to 18.0Mlbs, receiving key regulatory approvals (Retention Lease and PEPR), and completing the Samphire pilot plant on time and under budget. These achievements have validated the project's technical, regulatory, and execution readiness, positioning the Field Recovery Trial (FRT) as the next critical step in unlocking value. The company also strengthened its balance sheet through an A$17.25 m institutional capital raise. It streamlined its portfolio by divesting non-core Northern Territory assets, sharpening its strategic focus on South Australia. Looking to FY26, Alligator's growth strategy is centered on successfully executing the FRT, delivering initial uranium recovery results, and using this data to support Mining Lease approvals and feasibility optimization. Key priorities include advancing toward a Bankable Feasibility Study, further improving resource confidence at Samphire, progressing revised drilling at Big Lake, and engaging with utilities on the potential offtake amid a supportive uranium market. Key milestones achieved –

Upgraded JORC Mineral Resource at Samphire (Blackbush) to 18.0Mlbs @ 676ppm U₃O₈, with the Indicated Resource increasing by 10% to 14.2Mlbs, materially improving development confidence.
Retention Lease (RL) granted for the Samphire Field Recovery Trial (FRT), marking a critical regulatory milestone toward production.
Program for Environment Protection and Rehabilitation (PEPR) approved, providing the final environmental clearance required to commence on-site trial activities.
Pilot plant construction at Samphire was completed on time and under budget, demonstrating strong execution capability and de-risking project delivery.
Field Recovery Trial fully prepared and commissioned, with first uranium recovery results expected in early CY26.
A $17.25 m institutional capital raise was completed, significantly strengthening the balance sheet and funding near-term development.
Divestment of non-core Northern Territory uranium assets to DevEx for A$7.5m, streamlining the portfolio and sharpening focus on South Australia.
New ISR-style uranium discovery at Big Lake, establishing proof of concept and longer-term exploration upside despite weather-related delays.

Alligator Energy delivered material resource growth and improved geological confidence at the Blackbush deposit.

Alligator Energy delivered material resource growth and improved geological confidence at the Blackbush deposit within the Samphire Uranium Project, with drilling extending mineralization beyond previous boundaries and supporting an upgraded 18.0Mlb JORC Mineral Resource, including a higher-quality Indicated component. This improvement enhances confidence in wellfield design and underpins the transition from study phase to field validation through the upcoming Field Recovery Trial, directly supporting feasibility and permitting outcomes. At Big Lake, Alligator made a significant emerging ISR-style uranium discovery, confirming uranium mineralization within shallow, permeable sand units amenable to in-situ recovery. The discovery represents the first proof-of-concept that the Lake Eyre Basin sediments can host large-scale ISR uranium systems, opening a new exploration frontier. Despite flooding-related delays to follow-up drilling, the geological model remains intact and prospective, with revised drilling planned. Collectively, Blackbush provides near-term development certainty, while Big Lake adds meaningful exploration upside, strengthening Alligator's medium- to long-term growth profile.

Expanded uranium mineralization by ~500m beyond prior boundaries and improved geological confidence.
JORC Mineral Resource Estimate increased to 18.0Mlbs @ 676ppm U₃O₈, with the Indicated Resource up 10% to 14.2Mlbs, materially strengthening readiness for wellfield design and feasibility work
The updated December 2023 Scoping Study highlights strong project economics, including a post-tax NPV8 of A$257m, a 2.45-year payback, and AISC of ~A$47.6/lb, positioning Samphire competitively on the global cost curve.
Big Lake delivered a significant new uranium discovery, proving the presence of uranium in ISR-amenable sediments within the Lake Eyre Basin.
Multiple intersections returned > 100 ppm U over thick sand units, supporting scale potential, though follow-up drilling was delayed by flooding.
Revised drilling is planned for 2026, providing ongoing exploration upside alongside Samphire development.

Outlook: Alligator Energy's outlook is underpinned by a highly supportive uranium market, with long-term prices strengthening as global decarbonization, reactor life extensions, new builds, and rapidly rising AI-driven data centre demand drive demand. The company entered FY26 with a strong financial position, supported by a successful A$17.25m institutional capital raise, a streamlined asset portfolio, and sufficient liquidity to fund its near-term development objectives. Key catalysts for growth include the commencement and results of the Samphire Field Recovery Trial, progression toward Mining Lease approvals and feasibility optimization, and further resource and exploration drilling at Samphire and Big Lake. Together, these catalysts are expected to position the company for potential re-rating as it advances toward becoming Australia’s next ISR uranium producer.

ACE’s Recommendation

Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX: AGE) is executing a focused growth strategy centered on advancing low-cost, low-impact in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium projects in stable Australian jurisdictions, with Samphire in South Australia as its core development asset and Big Lake providing exploration upside. In FY25, the company delivered several value-defining milestones, including upgrading the Samphire JORC resource to 18.0Mlbs, receiving key regulatory approvals (Retention Lease and PEPR), and completing the Samphire pilot plant on time and under budget, materially de-risking the development path. AGE also strengthened its balance sheet through an A$17.25 m institutional capital raise and sharpened strategic focus by divesting non-core Northern Territory assets, improving capital efficiency and execution clarity. These achievements have positioned the company to transition from developer to potential producer. Looking to FY26, AGE's outlook is underpinned by a supportive uranium market and a robust financial position, with key growth catalysts including the commencement and results of the Samphire Field Recovery Trial, progression of Mining Lease approvals, and advancement toward feasibility studies. Additional upside is expected from improvements in resource confidence at Samphire and renewed drilling at Big Lake, providing sustained news flow and potential value re-rating opportunities. We believe that Alligator Energy offers a leveraged exposure to a tightening uranium market with clear near-term catalysts, including the Samphire Field Recovery Trial, a strengthened balance sheet, and a de-risked ISR development pathway that could drive a valuation re-rating as the company advances toward production. The stock closed the day at A$0.039/share and presents an investment case in our view. We recommend a SPECULATIVE BUY rating on the stock and a stop loss at A$0.034/share.

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