According to recent media reports, global mining heavyweights Glencore and Rio Tinto have resumed preliminary discussions around a potential merger that could reshape the global resources sector. If completed, the combination would create the world’s largest mining company, with an estimated enterprise value exceeding US$260 billion.
Both companies have confirmed that early-stage talks are underway regarding a possible combination of their businesses, potentially structured as an all-share transaction. However, they also emphasised that there is no certainty that a deal will proceed.
Rio Tinto, currently the larger of the two with an enterprise value of around US$162 billion, is understood to be the likely acquirer under the proposed structure. The confirmation of talks weighed on Rio Tinto's Australian-listed shares, which fell sharply following the announcement.
Copper at the Centre of the Strategy
The renewed merger discussions come at a time when copper has become one of the most strategically essential commodities globally. Copper prices recently surged to record highs above US$13,000 per tonne, driven by accelerating demand from electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid expansion.
Industry analysts warn that the global copper market could face a supply shortfall of up to 10 million tonnes by 2040, intensifying competition among miners to secure long-life, high-quality copper assets.
Glencore has increasingly positioned itself as a copper-focused growth company. Management has publicly stated ambitions to become the world’s largest copper producer, supported by expansion plans that could see copper output rise to around 1.6 million tonnes per year by 2035.
Complexities Around Coal and Trading
One of the key uncertainties surrounding any potential transaction is Glencore’s coal portfolio and its extensive commodities trading operations. Rio Tinto exited coal entirely in 2018 and may be reluctant to re-enter the sector.
In recent months, Glencore has restructured its coal assets into a standalone, Australia-based entity, a move widely seen as increasing strategic flexibility, including the possibility of a future demerger. This restructuring may help address one of the significant obstacles that derailed earlier discussions between the two companies in late 2024.
Leadership and Timing Factors
Since the previous talks collapsed, Rio Tinto has appointed a new chief executive, Simon Trott, who has prioritised cost discipline, operational efficiency, and portfolio simplification. Several non-core assets are currently under strategic review.
Under UK takeover regulations, Rio Tinto has until February 5 to either make a formal offer for Glencore or formally step away from the process.
Whether or not a deal proceeds, the renewed talks highlight a broader shift across the mining sector toward scale, consolidation, and strategic exposure to future-facing commodities — particularly copper.
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