Netflix's bold US$83bn bid to acquire Warner Bros has ignited a fresh wave of scrutiny in the United States — and it may carry significant implications for global media markets, including Australia.
US President Donald Trump signalled over the weekend that Netflix's growing dominance in streaming could "be a problem" as regulators assess whether the merger gives the company too much market power.
A Potential 30%+ Market Share in the US
If approved, the combination of Netflix and Warner's HBO Max would push the company's share of the US streaming market above 30% — a threshold that historically triggers closer antitrust scrutiny.
Netflix is expected to argue that the definition of "streaming competition" should include broader platforms such as YouTube, thereby diluting its market share when calculating dominance.
Industry Pushback Intensifies
The deal, which surprised many in Hollywood, beat out rival bids from Paramount and Comcast. However, entertainment unions — including the guild representing Hollywood screenwriters — have already urged regulators to block the takeover, citing fears of job losses and reduced bargaining power.
Trump Signals Direct Involvement
Speaking ahead of the Kennedy Center Honors in Washington, Trump said he would be "involved in that decision," recalling the prolonged legal battle that accompanied AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner during his previous term.
Trump also confirmed that Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos visited him in the Oval Office last week but did not offer assurances regarding the merger's approval prospects.
Despite these warnings, Trump praised Sarandos as "fantastic," comparing him to legendary Hollywood studio chief Louis B. Mayer.
Political Undercurrents
The President's remarks also highlight political subtext surrounding the acquisition. Trump previously appeared to favour a bid from Paramount, whose backers include Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, a long-time ally of Trump.
Sarandos, on the other hand, has historically aligned with the Democratic Party but has remained engaged with Trump since the 2024 election.
Deal Timeline and International Impact
The Netflix–Warner merger is not expected to be finalised until late 2026 at the earliest. Beyond the US Department of Justice, European and international regulators will also conduct reviews — meaning Australian viewers and content producers may see impacts further down the line.
For Australia, the potential consolidation could reshape content licensing, streaming competition, negotiations over local content quotas, and the broader media investment landscape.
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